USING THE ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (ECM) TO FORECAST ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY

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Published: Jan 19, 2021
Keywords:
gross value added (GVA), construction and installation work, building branch, forecasting, ECM model, cointegration analysis валовая добавленная стоимость (ВДС), строительно-монтажные работы (СМР), строительная отрасль, прогнозирование, ECM-модель, коинтеграционный анализ

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A. MISHCHENKO
Белорусский государственный экономический университет, Минск
U. AKULICH
Белорусский государственный экономический университет, Минск

Abstract

The toolkit in the form of econometric models for predicting economic growth in the building branch is presented. Empirically, it has been proven that there is a determining short-term and long-term impact of investments in construction and installation works on the gross value added in construction. Using the Angle- Granger procedure, it was established that there is cointegration between construction and installation work and gross value added in construction. This makes possible to apply the error correction model to predict economic growth in the construction industry in Belarus.

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How to Cite
MISHCHENKO, A., & AKULICH, U. (2021). USING THE ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (ECM) TO FORECAST ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY. Vestnik of Polotsk State University. Part F. Constructions. Applied Sciences, (16), 88-95. Retrieved from https://journals.psu.by/constructions/article/view/353
Issue
No. 16 (2020)
Section
Construction
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Author Biography

U. AKULICH, Белорусский государственный экономический университет, Минск

канд. экон. наук, доц.

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