FORECASTING THE PROBABILITY OF BANKRUPTCY IN THE CONTEXT OF CRISIS MANAGEMENT OF ORGANIZATIONS

Abstract

The article examines methodological approaches (regulated and author's) to identify signs of bankruptcy and analyze the financial condition, and identifies their significant disadvantages. The authors conducted a comparative analysis of the official methodology for determining the insolvency of organizations of the Republic of Belarus with other post–Soviet countries similar in terms of business conditions - the Russian Federation, the Republic of Uzbekistan, and Ukraine. The complexity and versatility of the problems associated with the methodological support of bankruptcy risk analysis and the need to form a model based on a comprehensive (orientation as indicators to financial coefficients adopted in international practice in significant areas of financial condition analysis), dynamic (identification of trends in the transformation of invested capital up to the formation of final financial results from its functioning by analyzing operational accounting data, using the methodology of accounting analysis) and an industry approach (taking into account the factors of the internal and external environment of functioning characteristic of the type of economic activity of the business entity), which will create a new information array that simplifies the anti-crisis management of organizations in an economic crisis.