A MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE SUCCESSFUL RESOLUTION OF SITUATIONS OF UNCERTAINTY IN OPERATIONAL-SEARCH ACTIVITIES
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Abstract
The article discusses the theoretical and applied aspects of assessing the likelihood of resolving situations of uncertainty in operational investigative activities. The analysis of existing quantitative methods for assessing such situations is carried out. A probabilistic and statistical approach adapted to the conditions of the operational units of the internal affairs bodies is proposed, which makes it possible to formalize the decision-making process based on the calculation of probabilities and taking into account risk factors. The probability estimation model is substantiated, and an example of using the developed methodology for calculating the likely outcome is shown, taking into account the influence of all significant factors. The conceptual structure of key factors (choice, experience, time, risk) that determine the nature of the uncertainty situation in operational-search activity and form an interdependent system capable of adapting to changing operational conditions is presented.
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